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Release of the 2024 Fourth Wave of the "Taiwan National Defense Surveys" by the INDSR for External Use
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2025.01.09
Author
李冠成
Division of Chinese Politics, Military and Warfighting Concepts Kuan-chen Lee Associate Research Fellow

[Introduction]
As China continues to escalate its military threats against Taiwan—including frequent incursions by military aircraft, large-scale exercises, and intensified economic and diplomatic pressure—Taiwanese citizens' sense of security has been unprecedentedly impacted. Moreover, non-traditional security threats, such as disinformation, cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and societal infiltration, pose severe challenges to Taiwan's social stability and national security. In this context, enhancing public understanding of national defense, raising awareness of these threats, and fostering societal resilience for collective defense have become critical issues in current defense policy.

 

To address these challenges, this survey aims to explore Taiwanese citizens' perspectives on national defense knowledge, threat perception, and the resilience of whole-society defense through an online public opinion poll. The findings will serve as key references for policymakers in formulating relevant strategies.

 

[Summary of the Latest Survey Results]

 I. Public Knowledge of National Defense

1.The highest correct response rate (82%) among the public pertains to knowledge of U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation.

2. Correct response rates for questions about the size of the Taiwanese military, the percentage of GDP allocated to national defense, and the number of Chinese military aircraft incursions are significantly lower, at 28%, 26%, and 26%, respectively.

3. A high proportion of respondents (32%-39%) selected "don't know," reflecting insufficient public awareness of national defense issues.

4. Women, younger age groups (20-39 years), and those with lower educational attainment exhibit relatively lower levels of national defense knowledge.

5. The frequency of exposure to defense-related information is positively correlated with national defense knowledge scores.

II. Public Perception of Threats

1. 65% of respondents expressed concern about the possibility of an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

2. 49% believe that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could attack Taiwan within the next five years, while 50% disagreed.

3. 62% of respondents identified "China's territorial ambitions" as a serious threat.

4. Up to 46.9% of respondents reported feeling "indifferent" to PLA military exercises, indicating a growing desensitization to the normalization of such activities.

III. Support for and Willingness to Participate in Whole-Society Defense Resilience Policies

1. 71% of respondents support mobilizing businesses, schools, and civil organizations to address external threats, with 27% "strongly agreeing" and 44% "somewhat agreeing."

2. Policy support is higher among women (75%) and younger groups (74%), but decreases to 60% among those aged 60 and above.

3. 69% of respondents are willing to join volunteer civil defense organizations or community defense activities, with Green camp supporters showing higher willingness (92%) compared to Blue camp supporters (47%).

4. Partisan affiliation significantly affects levels of support and willingness to participate, with the Pan-Green camp consistently exhibiting higher support.

 

The above findings were derived from a survey commissioned by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) and conducted by Pollcracy Lab, an online survey laboratory at National Chengchi University, using the LimeSurvey online polling system. Respondents were drawn from a database compiled from previous telephone survey projects at National Chengchi University.

 

The target population for this study included adults aged 20 and above residing in Taiwan. The survey was conducted from Tuesday, November 19, 2024, to Wednesday, November 27, 2024, via online questionnaires sent to the entire respondent database. Of the 27,204 distributed questionnaires, 1,200 were fully completed, while 647 were partially completed or abandoned before quota fulfillment; the latter were excluded from the complete response rate calculation. The full completion rate was 4.41%.

 

[Application Process]
To apply for the use of this data, please fill out the data application form. Before applying, carefully read the "Data Release Guidelines" and the questionnaire items for each wave. After completing the form, please send it to indsrpoll@gmail.com. Upon receiving and reviewing the application form for accuracy, the data will be sent to the applicant via email. Applicants must comply with the relevant regulations outlined in the Institute's "Data Release Guidelines" when using the data.

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