[Origin of the Survey]
As a democratic country, the government needs to understand public opinion, especially in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment where it is essential to effectively grasp the public's attitudes and changes regarding defense policies. Since 2021, the INDSR has commissioned the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University to conduct the "Taiwan National Defense Surveys." Through data accumulation and scientific analysis, the aim is to provide recommendations for the government's defense policies, and all survey data will be released for external scholars and experts to utilize.
This survey focuses on the theme "Trump's Return to the White House: Public Opinion Responses and Insights on Taiwan's Defense and Foreign Policies." The survey targets individuals aged 18 and over residing in Taiwan, conducted through random sampling via telephone interviews. The survey was conducted from January 3 to January 7, 2025, at the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University. A total of 783 landline samples and 355 mobile samples were successfully completed, resulting in 1,138 samples. At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error is ±2.91%.
[Summary of the Latest Survey Results]
1.Outlook on Taiwan-U.S. Relations under the New Trump Administration
47% of respondents believe that Taiwan-U.S. relations will not change under the Trump administration; 24% think they may worsen, while 12% believe they will improve.
2.Responses to Trump's Tariff Measures
The poll indicates that 27% of the public supports "buying more U.S. weapons" as the preferred response to Trump's tariff policies; 22% believe Taiwan should encourage investment in the U.S.; and 17% prefer importing U.S. agricultural products.
3.Support for Semiconductor Manufacturers Establishing Factories in the U.S.
Approximately 38% of respondents support semiconductor manufacturers setting up factories in the U.S., while 49% oppose this. Supporters are mainly younger, more educated, and aligned with the Democratic Progressive Party; opponents tend to be older, less educated, and aligned with the Kuomintang.
4.titudes Toward Changes in the Defense Budget
47% of the public supports increasing the defense budget, 37% believe it should remain the same, and only 10% favor a reduction, indicating public support for increasing defense funding. However, those supporting an increase generally prefer a "slight increase," reflecting a cautious approach to raising defense spending.
5.allenges of Increasing the Defense Budget
Although nearly half of the respondents support increasing the defense budget, support drops to 34% and 40% when considering the resource crowding out effects on education and social welfare or the need for tax increases. This reflects a cautious attitude toward balancing defense spending with other social projects.
6.Priority Allocation of Defense Resources
If the government decides to increase the defense budget, the public believes that the budget should be prioritized for "enhancing military personnel quality" (40%) and "collaborating with the U.S. to develop defense technology" (27%).
7.Confidence in U.S. Security Commitments
The survey found that 49% of respondents believe that the U.S. would deploy troops to assist Taiwan in the event of conflict across the Taiwan Strait, a figure consistent with past surveys, indicating that public confidence in U.S. security commitments has not changed.
[Application Process]
To apply for the use of data from our institute, please fill out the data application form. Before applying, please read the "Data Release Guidelines" and the questions from each survey carefully. Once completed, please send the form to indsrpoll@gmail.com. After the responsible party receives and verifies the application form, the survey data will be sent to the applicant via email. Applicants must comply with the relevant regulations in the institute's "Data Release Guidelines" when using the data.