[Survey Background]
The theme of this survey is “Trump’s Return: Changes and Challenges in Taiwanese Public Opinion on National Defense and Foreign Policy.” The survey targeted Taiwanese residents aged 18 and above, conducted via telephone using random sampling. The interviews were carried out by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University from March 4 to March 9, 2025. A total of 1,285 valid responses were collected, including 920 landline and 365 mobile phone samples. The maximum sampling error is ±2.73% at a 95% confidence level.
[Summary of Latest Survey Findings]
1.Perception of China's Threat to Taiwan Remains the Top Concern
• 33% of respondents identified “China’s threat to Taiwan” as the most serious national security threat in the next five years, far exceeding concerns over the “declining birthrate crisis” (27%) and “economic stagnation” (18%).
• Among youth aged 18-29, 36% viewed China as the primary threat, indicating that Beijing’s united front efforts have not undermined young people's security awareness.
2.Majority Do Not Expect a Taiwan Strait War in the Near Term
• 65% believe it is unlikely that the PLA will attack Taiwan within five years, with “unlikely” and “very unlikely” responses significantly outnumbering “likely” and “very likely.”
• Despite China’s ongoing military intimidation, public expectations of a short-term invasion remain calm and rational.
3.Slight Decline in Confidence Toward U.S.-Taiwan Relations After Trump’s Return
• 36% believe U.S.-Taiwan relations will worsen under Trump, a 12% increase since January 2025.
• Although the U.S. has shown pro-Taiwan signals, uncertainties in Trump’s Taiwan policy have led to cautious public attitudes.
4.Continued Public Support for U.S. Arms Purchases
• 59% agree that Taiwan should continue purchasing military equipment from the U.S. to strengthen defense capabilities.
• Support for U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation remains stable despite cautious views on bilateral relations.
5.Growing Support for Increasing the Defense Budget
• 51% support raising the defense budget, a 4% increase since January 2025, surpassing the majority threshold for the first time.
• Those favoring a “significant increase” rose from 38% to 44%, reflecting a growing consensus on enhancing defense capabilities.
6.Special Budget Becomes the Preferred Source for Defense Funding
• 49% favor using special budgets to increase defense spending, ahead of “tax hikes” (42%) and “resource reallocation” (31%).
• The public prefers methods that do not impact other public expenditures, indicating higher acceptance of special budgets.
7.Slight Decline in Confidence Toward Taiwan’s Military
• The proportion expressing “strong confidence” fell from 20% in September 2024 to 14%, while those expressing “no confidence” rose from 25% to 30%.
• Recent espionage cases within the military may have heightened concerns over security management.
8.Decreased Trust in U.S. Security Commitments
• Those believing the U.S. “will definitely intervene militarily” dropped from 19% in March 2024 to 14%, while 47% believe the U.S. is unlikely to intervene.
• The Trump administration’s ambiguous stance on the Taiwan Strait has weakened public confidence in U.S. commitments.
9.Public Willingness to Defend Taiwan Remains Stable
• 41% are “very willing to fight for Taiwan,” similar to 42% in September 2024, indicating steady defense resolve.
• Despite Chinese military pressure and U.S. policy uncertainties, Taiwanese determination to defend their homeland remains firm.
[Application Procedure]
To apply for access to this dataset, please complete the application form after reviewing the Data Release Guidelines and questionnaire items. Submit the form to indsrpoll@gmail.com. Upon approval, the data will be sent via email. Applicants must comply with INDSR’s Data Release Guidelines when using the data.