[Survey Background]

The Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) commissioned the Pollcracy Lab of National Chengchi University to conduct an online survey in June 2025, aiming to examine Taiwanese public preferences and decision-making logic regarding defense budget policies. The survey targeted adults aged 20 and above residing in Taiwan. Questionnaires were distributed through an online platform to respondents drawn from a database established by previous telephone surveys conducted by NCCU’s Election Study Center. The survey was conducted between June 18 and June 29, 2025. A total of 27,004 invitations were sent, with 1,200 completed responses collected, yielding a completion rate of 4.44%. The study also incorporated a conjoint experiment, which presented respondents with hypothetical policy packages combining different attributes, including security context, budget increase, funding sources, spending priorities, allied expectations, and policy proposers. This design enabled the assessment of citizens’ preferences across varying scenarios and trade-offs, providing valuable empirical insights for government planning and communication of defense budget policies.

[Summary of Latest Survey Findings]

1.Public support prioritizes asymmetric capabilities and defense technology R&D

 • Respondents expressed the strongest support for allocating additional defense resources to “developing missiles, drones, and mobile weapons” and to “research and development of defense technology and indigenous systems.” Support for “maintaining readiness through equipment repair and troop training” was also above average, while “purchasing large-scale weapons” and “increasing military pay and benefits” received the lowest levels of support.

2. Special budgets preferred to avoid cuts to social spending

 • Among funding options, “allocating a special budget subject to Legislative Yuan review” was the most popular. In contrast, raising taxes or cutting education and social welfare expenditures were much less acceptable.

3.Cross-party and expert-backed proposals seen as most legitimate

 • Proposals jointly introduced by cross-party experts and defense officials received the highest levels of support, significantly outperforming those introduced solely by the ruling or opposition parties. This underscores the importance of professionalism and political neutrality in defense policymaking.

4.Moderate budget increases most favored, with 10% leading

 • Respondents preferred moderate growth in defense spending, with “a 10% increase” garnering the strongest support, followed by 5% and 15%. Support for a one-time 20% increase was relatively low.

5.External context has limited impact, but threat escalation boosts support

 • When presented with scenarios of escalating Chinese military activity, public support for defense budget increases rose, peaking under conditions of large-scale exercises and invasion signals. While the effect was modest, it shows that heightened threats do influence public attitudes.

6.Partisan identity and confidence in the military shape preferences

 • Pan-Green supporters were more favorable toward higher budget increases and military investments, while Pan-Blue supporters were more conservative. Independents and Taiwan People’s Party supporters aligned more closely with Pan-Blue preferences. Meanwhile, respondents with higher confidence in the military were more likely to endorse larger increases and asymmetric capabilities, whereas those lacking confidence were more cautious.

[Application Procedure]

To apply for access to this dataset, please complete the application form after reviewing the Data Release Guidelines and questionnaire items. Submit the form to indsrpoll@gmail.com. Upon approval, the data will be sent via email. Applicants must comply with INDSR’s Data Release Guidelines when using the data.