[Survey Background]

In recent years, the security environment around the Taiwan Strait has grown increasingly complex, with China exerting sustained military pressure through frequent aerial and naval activities, alongside information and diplomatic coercion. As U.S.–China strategic competition intensifies and global conflicts continue to reshape the international order, understanding how Taiwanese citizens perceive external threats, great-power dynamics, and allied commitments has become essential for national security and foreign policy planning. Since 2021, INDSR has conducted the Taiwan National Defense and Security Public Opinion Survey to track long-term trends in threat perception, foreign policy attitudes, and defense willingness.This wave of the survey was conducted by the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University. Using a dual-frame random sampling method of landline and mobile phones, the survey targeted adults aged 18 and over in Taiwan. Interviews were completed between August 26 and August 31, 2025, yielding 893 valid landline and 405 mobile responses, for a total of 1,298 completed cases. The margin of sampling error is ±2.72% at the 95% confidence level.

[Summary of Latest Survey Findings]

1.Economic and climate risks rank alongside China-related threats as major security challenges

 • The survey shows that 55% of respondents view China’s territorial ambitions as a serious threat to Taiwan over the next decade, though this represents a decline from 2024.By comparison, higher proportions consider economic stagnation (68%) and extreme weather and natural disasters (64%) to be serious threats, reflecting different prioritizations of security concerns.

2. Strong public recognition of U.S. military superiority; perceived U.S.–China economic power gap is narrowing

 • Sixty percent of respondents believe the United States maintains military superiority over China, while only 9% believe China is stronger. On economic strength, although a majority still considers the United States stronger, the shares believing China is stronger (16%) or that the two countries are about equal (18%) have increased—indicating greater public awareness of U.S.–China economic competition.

3.Public places greater confidence in indirect allied support and remains cautious about direct military involvement

 • In the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict, respondents expect the United States to assist primarily by:
(1) Imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on China; and
(2) Providing weapons and military supplies.
Roughly 60–70% believe the U.S. might or definitely would take these actions.
In contrast, confidence in direct U.S. military involvement—such as deploying troops or breaking a blockade—is significantly lower.

4.Public confidence in Taiwan’s defense capability remains around 50%, with slight scenario-based variation

 • Approximately half of respondents express confidence in the Taiwanese military’s ability to defend Taiwan. Confidence levels vary slightly depending on how the question is framed in different scenarios.

5.Defense willingness remains stable; a majority is willing to defend Taiwan

 • When asked whether they would be willing to fight for Taiwan in the event of a Chinese military invasion, more than 60% of respondents expressed willingness, including about 20% who said they were very willing. While the long-term trend remains relatively stable, the share of respondents unwilling to fight is higher than in earlier years, indicating a need to monitor evolving societal attitudes.

6.Significant partisan and generational differences highlight the need for targeted communication and consensus-building

 • Partisan affiliation continues to shape threat perception, confidence in allied assistance, and defense willingness. Among those who view China’s territorial ambitions as a serious threat, the share is highest among Democratic Progressive Party supporters (77%), followed by supporters of the Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party (around 40%), with nonpartisans showing even lower levels. Differences across age and education groups are also evident. These findings underscore the importance of tailored communication strategies to strengthen societal consensus on national defense and security.

[Application Procedure]

To apply for access to this dataset, please complete the application form after reviewing the Data Release Guidelines and questionnaire items. Submit the form to indsrpoll@gmail.com. Upon approval, the data will be sent via email. Applicants must comply with INDSR’s Data Release Guidelines when using the data.