This study compares findings from the 2025 Chicago Council Survey in the United States and the 2025 Taiwan National Defense Surveys to assess American and Taiwanese public perceptions of power, threat, and policy preferences in the Taiwan Strait. The results reveal substantial areas of convergence alongside persistent gaps. In both societies, majorities view the United States as militarily stronger than China and regard China’s rise as a critical threat. Most Americans and Taiwanese also share a strong preference for maintaining the cross-strait status quo, opposing both Taiwan’s rapid move toward independence and closer unification with China.

Despite this common ground, important differences emerge in crisis scenarios. Taiwanese respondents consistently express higher expectations for direct US military involvement than Americans are willing to support. While majorities in both countries favor US provision of humanitarian assistance and military supplies in the event of a Chinese invasion, American support declines when actions could trigger direct confrontation, such as deploying US troops. Although American willingness to consider limited military actions—such as breaking a blockade—has increased over the past year, it still lags behind Taiwanese expectations.

Overall, the findings suggest that while shared preferences on stability and assistance provide a foundation for cooperation, managing expectation gaps through clearer strategic communication will remain a critical challenge for policymakers in Washington and Taipei.

To explore the full findings, read the complete report here