INTRODUCTION
Recently, an unfortunate incident occurred in the waters near Kinmen, where a Taiwan Coast Guard vessel collided with a mainland fishing boat, resulting in the tragic death of two mainland fishermen. This incident garnered attention and sparked tensions across the Taiwan Strait, underscoring the significance of Kinmen as a pivotal point for cross-Strait relations and maritime disputes. In fact, Kinmen, once a frontline of Taiwan, is coveted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as a model for cross-strait integration and peaceful reunification. On September 12, 2023, the State Council of China issued 21 measures, which included plans for the construction of a bridge connecting Kinmen and Xiamen, as part of efforts to establish Fujian Province as a demonstration zone for integrated development across the Taiwan Strait.[1] Aligning with central government policy, Fujian ProvincialGovernment confirmed that construction had commenced on the Xiamen side of the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge.[2] There are growing concerns that Kinmen could potentially become the next Crimea.[3] By analyzing Kinmen’s strategic significance and security concerns, this article argues that the Kinmen- Xiamen Bridge may have a serious negative impact on Taiwan’s national security. Once constructed, the bridge could be the final straw in pushing Kinmen towards a Crimean-style scenario.
THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF KINMEN
Kinmen is located on the western side of the Taiwan Strait and has served as a frontline for military standoff between the two sides since the division of political regimes in 1949. It has witnessed numerous military conflicts, including the Battle of Guningtou, the Battle of Dadan Island, the August 23 Artillery Bombardment, and others. From a historical perspective, Kinmen’s strategic significance in cross-strait military affairs is undeniable. Despite adjustments to Kinmen’s military value in accordance with the evolution of Taiwan’s defense posture—from a peak of 100,000 troops to the current presence of 3,000 troops—Kinmen retains three key strategic significances:
1.Kinmen Holds Strategic Significance in Terms of Morale and Spirit
Situated as a frontline island in the Taiwan Strait, Kinmen has long played a crucial role, particularly in the face of political and military pressures from across the strait. While Kinmen itself may not be at the core of Taiwan’s defense, its geographical location and historical significance in countering external threats make it a symbol of crucial importance for the morale for the Taiwanese people.
During the mid-20th century, Kinmen experienced tense crossstrait relations and the threat of war, notably during the Kinmen Artillery Bombardment from the 1950s to the 1970s. Despite facing formidable adversaries and daunting challenges, Kinmen’s residents demonstrated remarkable resilience and determination in defending their land and beliefs.[4]
This spirit served as an example for the people of Taiwan during difficult times and continues to influence Taiwan’s defense and societal development.
Furthermore, Kinmen’s strategic importance extends beyond territorial integrity. It serves as a symbol of Taiwan’s commitment to defending its sovereignty and protecting its people. The historical significance of Kinmen as a bastion of resilience against external threats cannot be understated. Therefore, Kinmen is not just a geographical location but a symbol representing the steadfast belief of the Taiwanese people in freedom and democracy, as well as their resilient will to resist external threats. In this regard, the strategic significance of Kinmen extends far beyond its geographical location and is more prominently manifested in its morale and spiritual symbolism.
2.Kinmen, As the “Eye of the Frontline,” Helps with Early Warning
Kinmen’s proximity to the coastal areas of Fujian Province enables it to serve as a critical observation point for monitoring activities across the Taiwan Strait. Its strategic geographical position allows for early detection of potential threats or incursions from Mainland China. The island’s surveillance capabilities, coupled with its advanced communication infrastructure, provide valuable intelligence to Taiwan’s defense forces.
Moreover, the presence of vigilant surveillance and early warning systems in Kinmen can act as a deterrent against potential aggressions or provocations from across the strait. The knowledge that any hostile action would be swiftly detected and met with a robust response serves to enhance Taiwan’s security and deter escalation of tensions. As Taiwan continues to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics, Kinmen remains a crucial asset in safeguarding Taiwan’s security interests.
3.Kinmen Raises the Cost of PLA Military Actions against Taiwan
If the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) were to invade Taiwan, it could opt for a gradual strategy by first occupying outlying islands before advancing toward Taiwan’s main island. Alternatively, to avoid international intervention, it might choose a swift and decisive approach by bypassing the outlying islands and directly targeting Taiwan’s main island.[5] However, regardless of the approach taken, Kinmen has the capability to act as a restr aining force.
In the envisioned scenario where the PLA initiates an attack on Taiwan’s outlying islands, Kinmen assumes a crucial role as an independent defender. By employing a strategy of independent defense, Kinmen can effectively delay the PLA’s efforts to seize control of the outlying islands. This delay is significant as it provides Taiwan with essential time to bolster its defenses, mobilize resources, and coordinate response measures.
In the second scenario, where the PLA launches an amphibious invasion of Taiwan’s main island, Kinmen assumes a pivotal role as a strategic deterrent and hindrance to enemy advance. For instance, as the PLA attempts to consolidate its forces and launch the cross-sea assault, Kinmen’s forces can disrupt enemy logistics, delay troop movements, and complicate the PLA’s operational timeline. Thus, Kinmen’s presence looms as a significant obstacle, causing the enemy forces to proceed with caution at every stage of their operation.
THE IMPACT OF BUILDING THE KINMEN-XIAMEN BRIDGE ON TAIWAN’S DEFENSE AND SECURITY
Based on the strategic importance of Kinmen mentioned above, the construction of the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge is inferred to have the following negative impacts on Taiwan’s national security.
1.Undermining the Morale of Both Military and Civilians
The “21 Measures” from China’s State Council primarily target Kinmen and Matsu regions. They support integration between Xiamen and Kinmen, provide Kinmen residents with benefits like those in Xiamen, est ablish a “one- city lifestyle circle” between Xiamen and Kinmen, and expedite connectivity projects like electricity, gas, bridges, and a shared new airport. Ironically, just a day before the document was issued (September 11), the PLA conducted extensive maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait, involving 20 Chinese vessels operating in the vicinity. The PLA aircraft carrier “Shandong” sailed eastward through the Bashi Channel into the Western Pacific, approximately 60 nautical miles from Taiwan’s Eluanbi on its southern tip.
In fact, the preferential measures of fered by the CCP to Taiwan’s outlying islands are part of its strategy of united front tactics, aiming to impose pressure on Taiwan through a combination of political, military, economic, psychological, and social approaches, coercing Taiwan into unification. The construction of the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge represents the first phase of this strategy, aimed at blurring the lines between friend and foe and weakening the morale of both military and civilian populations to facilitate peaceful unification. While the construction of the bridge does not necessarily imply that people will accept unification, it may still increase Kinmen residents’ reliance on Fujian, potentially diminishing their resistance to China’s influence and fostering a stronger sense of Chinese identity.
2.Opening a Convenient Gateway for Special Operations
Despite Kinmen’s proximity to Xiamen, the two areas remain physically separated by water, forming a natural barrier. In other words, if the PLA were to conduct special operations targeting key military facilities in Kinmen, they would need to cross the sea using vehicles, thereby increasing the difficulty and risk of the operation. However, once the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge is completed, the natural barrier will disappear, opening a convenient gateway for PLA special operations. For example, PLA special operations personnel can disguise themselves in civilian vehicles, infiltrating Kinmen in large groups on land transportation routes. Due to the convenience of land transportation, it is easier to transport cutters, weapons, and other equipment to Kinmen Island. With the assistance of infiltrated agents, launching special operations on Kinmen becomes more feasible.
The incident of Hamas attacks on Israel further highlights the vulnerability caused by lack of natural barriers. Due to the lack of natural barriers, Hamas militants easily seized control of poorly defended checkpoints. They used bulldozers or common tools to dismantle barbed wire fences and proceeded to abduct hostages deep within Israeli territory.[6] Therefore, from a security standpoint, connecting Kinmen and Xiamen via the bridge does not enhancesafety; instead, it provides adversaries with more diverse and flexible means of attack, while simultaneously lowering costs and risks.
3.Turning Kinmen into a forward base for the PLA’s invasion of Taiwan
During the operational phase, the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge can also facilitate rapid movement of troops and armored vehicles. Once control is seized by the other side, it will result in swifter deployment of forces from the adversary.
A notable example is the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. Russian President Putin led the construction of the Crimean Bridge, which links the Crimean Peninsula with Russia. Completed in 2019, the bridge encompasses both road and rail infrastructure. Following the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, the Crimean Bridge emerged as a crucial supply route for Russian military operations. It was targeted and subjected to attacks resulting in explosions by Ukrainian forces in both October 2022 and July 2023. [7]
The example of the Crimean Bridge indicates that, should a conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, the completed Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge would serve as a vital logistical supply route for the PLA. Moreover, Kinmen’s ports and airport may be at risk of becoming forward bases for the PLA’s assault on Taiwan. In other words, Kinmen aspires to avoid becoming a battleground by constructing the bridge. However, if the CCP were to invade Taiwan, the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge, as an existing transportation conduit, might ironically increase the likelihood of Kinmen becoming a forward base.
CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
By analyzing Kinmen’s strategic importance and the potential usage of the bridge during wartime, this article contends that the construction of the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge will not only undermine the morale and spirit of Taiwanese society but also pose a significant threat to the security of both Kinmen and the main island of Taiwan. Taiwanese government and society should carefully assess the risks of the Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge from the perspective of national defense. They should also offer professional opinions on the security concerns related to the bridge in a public referendum, allowing the public to consider these factors when making decisions.
However, given the close ties between Kinmen and Xiamen, it’s essential to recognize and address the potential for increased demands and interactions between the two places. To effectively manage these growing demands, the government could propose the establishment of a comprehensive system aimed at facilitating cooperation, communication, and coordination. We propose the following recommendations for policymakers to consider:
1.Bilateral Coordination Mechanism
The government could create a formal bilateral coordination mechanism between Kinmen and Xiamen authorities. This mechanism would serve as a platform for regular dialogue and collaboration on various issues, including transportation, trade, tourism, and cultural exchange. Through structured meetings and working groups, officials from both sides could discuss common challenges, share information, and coordinate policy responses.
2.Cross-Strait Communication Channels
Establishing effective communication channels between Kinmen and Xiamen residents could facilitate better understanding and cooperation between the two communities. This could involve initiatives such as cultural exchange programs, youth exchanges, and academic collaborations. By fostering people-to-people connections and promoting cultural exchange, Kinmen and Xiamen can build trust and goodwill, laying the foundation for closer cooperation in the future.
3.Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
Inevitably, conflicts or disputes may arise between Kinmen and Xiamen due to increased interactions. To address these issues, the government could set up conflict resolution mechanisms to facilitate peaceful resolution through dialogue and negotiation. This could involve establishing arbitration panels, mediation services, or community-based dispute resolution processes to address grievances and maintain harmony between the two sides.
4.Preventing CCP Propaganda
Finally, if the bridge were to be built, the Taiwanese government must prevent it from becoming a platform for CCP pro-unification propaganda. The government could highlight the bridge as an achievement of Taiwan, aimed at enhancing cross-Strait peace and promoting cooperation. This could involve proactive communication strategies to emphasize Taiwan’s commitment to peace, stability, and prosperity across the strait in framing the bridge’s construction. By controlling the narrative surrounding the significance of the bridge, Taiwan can mitigate the risk of it being exploited for political purposes by external actors, thus maintaining its sovereignty and autonomy in cross- Strait relations.
[1]“China to Set Up Cross-Strait Integrated Development Demonstration Zone,” The State Council of The People’s Republic of China, September 12, 2023, https://english.www.gov.cn/policies/latestreleases/202309/12/content_WS65004bc9c6d0868f4e8df605.html.
[2] “fu jian tui dong yu jin ma ‘xiao si tong ‘ lu pu sha jin da qiao dong gong xin jin zhan” [ 福建推動與金馬「小四通」 陸曝廈金大橋動工新進展 Fujian Province Promotes ‘Mini Four Links’ with Kinmen and Matsu; Mainland Reveals New Progress in the Commencement of Construction of Xiamen-Kinmen Bridge], lian he xin wen wang [ 聯合新聞網 UDN news], November 29, 2023, https://udn.com/news/story/7332/7607660.
[3] Amber Lin, “Will Kinmen, Taiwan’s Frontline, Become the Next Crimea?” The Commonwealth Magazine, December 17, 2019, https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=2612.
[4] Maochun Miles Yu, “The Battle of Quemoy: The Amphibious Assault That Held the Postwar Military Balance in the Taiwan Strait,” Naval War College Review 69, no. 2 (Spring 2016): 91-107.
[5] The two possible scenarios were mentioned in Pentagon’s 2023 report on China’s military power. Please see “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2023,” Department of Defense (October 19, 2023), 140-142, https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023- MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF. For other discussions please refer to Frederik Kelter, “Taiwan’s Outlying Islands Are at Risk: Chinese Domestic Instability Could Encourage the CCP to Attack the Taiwanese Archipelagos of Kinmen and Matsu,” Foreign Policy, January 16, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/16/taiwan-kinmen-matsu-outlying-islands-china-warrisk/.
[6] Sean Seddon and Daniele Palumbo, “How Hamas Staged Israel Lightening Assault No-one Thought Possible,” BBC, October 8, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67046750.
[7] “Crimea Bridge Attack: What Happened, Why is the Bridge Important?” Aljazeera, July 17, 2023, https:// www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/17/crimea-bridge-attack-what-happened-why-is-the-bridge-important.