Emanuele Rossi[1]
In the immediate aftermath of Iran’s missile attack on Israel, Taiwan’s diplomatic mission in Israel swiftly issued a strong condemnation. “Over 100 missiles fired by Iran gravely undermine regional and global stability. We join peace-loving democracies worldwide in condemning this move and urge all parties to exercise restraint and seek solutions through diplomacy,” the statement read. Taiwan’s reaction could go beyond mere diplomacy—it might reflect deeper strategic concerns as it faces an existential threat from China. By aligning with Israel, Taiwan might reinforce its place among democracies confronting authoritarian regimes and potentially use this conflict as an opportunity to draw lessons for its defense.
Taiwan’s support for Israel might not only be a matter of diplomatic solidarity; it could also represent a calculated strategic move. The Israel-Iran conflict could offer valuable learning opportunities for Taiwan, particularly in preparing for a potential military threat from China. One year after the beginning of the war in the Middle East, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense’s primary goal should be identifying weaknesses in Israeli defenses that Taiwan might mitigate within its systems. Taiwan may be especially interested in how Israel addresses missile saturation and asymmetric threats—challenges Taiwan could face from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which possesses one of the world’s largest missile arsenals.
TACTICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL LESSONS FROM GAZA
Days after Hamas’s attack on Israeli on October 7th last year, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense appointed a task force to study the conflict. One instant takeaway, noted Taiwan’s then-defense minister Chiu Kuo-cheng, was the need to improve intelligence to avoid surprise attacks. Others within the ministry emphasized the risk that air defenses, such as Taiwan’s, could be overwhelmed by “saturation” missile/ drone attacks—similar to the situation faced by Israel from Hezbollah (or Iran). In response, Taiwan should urge its partners, particularly the United States, to enhance intelligence sharing regarding Chinese military movements. Strengthening early warning systems and air defense capabilities should become a top priority to counter potential missile threats from the PLA.
Beyond military tactics, Taiwan could study the psychological impact of the Hamas attack on Israeli society. Taiwanese strategists should focus on how Israel has maintained national unity and resilience amid widespread fear and civilian casualties. Taiwan, facing the possibility of an even more structured and powerful assault from China, will need to maintain social cohesion and prevent panic during a military conflict.
ASYMMETRIC WARFARE AND ISRAEL’S DEFENSE STRATEGIES
Hamas’s coordinated use of rockets, drones, and paraglider-equipped militants should catch Taiwan’s attention as a prime example of modern asymmetric warfare. Taiwan should carefully study how Israel’s Iron Dome and other defense systems have responded to these diverse threats, as China might eventually employ similar tactics in a future conflict. Like Israel, Taiwan may need to prepare for multi-domain attacks—air, sea/amphibious, and cyber—and should focus on enhancing its defense infrastructure to counter threats across these domains.
Taiwan can also learn from the role that social media and psychological warfare played in the Hamas assault from Gaza. The rapid spread of images and videos of attacks on Israeli civilians amplified the impact of the chaos, contributing to a broader psychological shock. Taiwan should recognize that, in the event of a Chinese invasion, managing the information environment and maintaining national morale might be as crucial as a military strategy to ensure adequate defense.
MILITARY REFORM AND LESSONS FROM ISRAEL
Taiwan can not only draw immediate tactical lessons from Israel but could also consider broader military reforms. In “The Boiling Moat,” a collection of essays edited by Matt Pottinger, former U.S. National Security Council official, experts suggest that Taiwan should adopt lessons from Israel’s conscription system, even proposing the recruitment of Israeli advisors to instill a “warrior ethos.” While Taiwan has recently extended compulsory military service from four months to a year, it still falls short of Israel’s three-year conscription, which also includes women. Israel’s reserve units are frontline-ready, whereas Taiwan’s reserves are primarily tasked with home defense.
Moreover, despite nearly doubling its military budget since 2016, Taiwan’s defense spending remains at 2.6% of GDP—roughly half of Israel’s pre-Gaza war expenditures. On August 22, the Executive Yuan of the Republic of China approved a budget increase, setting Taiwan’s defense spending for 2025 at approximately 2.45% of GDP, a 7.7% rise over the previous year, reaching NT$647 billion—a record amount. While Taiwan’s defense budget is growing, the ability to achieve higher targets, such as 3% or even 5%, remains uncertain and subject to factors like the potential easing of cross-strait relations.
Moreover, an increase in the defense budget does not automatically translate into immediate enhancements in defense capabilities. The journey from policy formulation to budget allocation, acquiring personnel and equipment, and ultimately achieving combat readiness usually spans five to ten years.
Notably, a substantial portion of Taiwan’s defense budget is dedicated to procuring weapons and equipment from the United States, which restricts Taiwan's access to its most advanced systems. Furthermore, significant delays in delivering critical U.S. weapon systems frequently hamper Taiwan’s defense readiness. This is a crucial reason Taiwan maintains a measured approach to further increasing its defense budget. Ultimately, the balance of Taiwan’s defense capabilities will significantly depend on the initiatives and strategic vision that the new U.S. administration adopts in its approach toward Washington-Taipei relations.
These factors contribute to Taiwan’s cautious approach toward further budget increases, highlighting the need for strategic planning in resource allocation and long-term preparedness.
THE BROADER GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
Taiwan’s support for Israel could also reflect a broader geopolitical alignment. As China strengthens its partnerships with revisionist regimes like Iran and Russia or North Korea (the so-called “axis of upheaval”), Taiwan can position itself within the global “axis of democracies.” This alignment could be more than symbolic—Taiwan can actively bolster ties with like-minded nations such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which have similarly condemned the attacks on Israel, have a strong position against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are alarmed by Pyongyang’s assertivity and see China as a systemic rival. By condemning Iran’s actions, Taiwan can signal its place in the global ideological/governance model, aligning itself with democratic partners against authoritarian threats.
LOOKING AHEAD: TAIWAN’S EXISTENTIAL CONCERNS
While tactical lessons from Gaza are invaluable, Taiwan’s overarching concern remains its ability to preserve sovereignty in the face of Chinese aggression. Like Israel, Taiwan can appreciate the vital importance of like-minded nation support yet might also recognize the need to hold the line until such assistance materializes. In light of these considerations, Taiwan would benefit from strengthening its direct defense capabilities and fostering enhanced military technology cooperation and operational experience exchanges with Israel.
Taiwan could prepare a proactive strategy encompassing both the diplomatic and economic realms. Just as an ECFR’s report on “Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario” suggests that Europe must be ready for “apparently unthinkable measures” in confronting Russian aggression, Taiwan might envision unconventional yet impactful steps to bolster its resilience.
Taiwan should definitely build a defense posture that includes collaboration with like-minded partners and prepares for swift, creative actions that secure both public and private support in times of crisis. By integrating lessons from conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and from the other fronts around Israel, Taiwan can proactively shape a robust defense strategy that is as adaptive as it is resilient.
Strengthening its military and psychological defenses may not just be a priority but an existential necessity. Specifically, as the global democratic community watches the evolving conflict in Gaza, Taiwan might draw lessons and reaffirm its commitment to resisting authoritarianism, regardless of the odds.
[1]
Emanuele Rossi is an independent expert in geopolitics, security, and geoeconomics, focusing on the Indo-Pacific and Indo-Mediterranean. He collaborates with prominent think tanks and international media outlets.