Abstract
Amid the deepening U.S.-China confrontation, Prabowo's overwhelming support from voters and his strongman persona, capable of creating a new dynamic, have sparked renewed speculation about a shift in the diplomatic paradigm among ASEAN members, following the examples of the Philippines and Vietnam. The author believes that after Prabowo takes office, the diplomatic competition between the U.S. and China over Indonesia will intensify, limiting the space for maintaining its traditional neutral stance. The security standoff between Indonesia and China in the North Natuna Sea is also unlikely to be resolved. Although Prabowo will continue to emphasize the necessity of a neutral foreign policy on the surface, the reality of China's economic downturn and strategic retrenchment, combined with the U.S. capitalizing on a "strategic opportunity" to strengthen its dominance over critical mineral supply chains, will push Prabowo to engage in broader practical coordination with the U.S. After all, this approach aligns more with Indonesia’s interests and provides Prabowo a bigger platform to showcase his diplomatic prowess. It can be said that any potential paradigm shift under the future Prabowo administration will be a pragmatic result shaped by strategic pressures from both the U.S. and China.
Keywords: Indonesian President, Election, U.S.-China Confrontation, Paradigm Shift, China-Indonesian Relations