Abstract
This paper explores the election trends of South Pacific countries in the context of U.S.-China competition. The author first explains how China, through its grand peripheral diplomacy strategy, has implemented the Belt and Road Initiative in the South Pacific since 2014, thereby expanding its influence through lending. Next, an analysis is conducted of U.S. efforts to reengage and strengthen alliances in the region. The author finds that the U.S. seems unable to fully deter regional revisionist actors from challenging the status quo. In this context, future election trends in South Pacific countries are likely to polarize, either leaning toward the U.S. or China. Moreover, China not only serves as a key issue during regional elections, U.S. reengagement has not significantly weakened China’s influence in the South Pacific.
Keywords: U.S.-China Competition, Soth Pacific, Election Trends, Polarization