Abstract
Since the “martial law crisis” on December 3, 2024, until the presidential election on June 3rd, 2025, South Korea experienced nearly six months of so-called "impeachment politics," unable to make concrete major decisions and only able to minimize the negative impact on issues such as South Korea-US tariff negotiations and the presence of US troops in South Korea.
Currently, the Lee Jae-Myung administration has been in power for less than a year and clearly prioritizes domestic affairs, focusing on improving internal economic and social conflicts. The Lee Jae-Myung administration is highly likely to address regional security issues through multilateral diplomacy. Even though South Korea's future defense and foreign policy may be subject to US pressure, this article predicts that the new South Korean government will initially adopt a risk-averse approach of "multilateral dialogue instead of bloc confrontation" as its main strategy.
On the other hand, North Korea is also rapidly strengthening its relations with China and Russia, accelerating the replacement of outdated conventional weapons in its army and navy, attempting to narrow the arms gap with South Korea. This makes South Korea face even more dangerous military provocations in the future.
This article discusses the challenges North and South Korea face in their foreign strategies among major powers, based on the aforementioned current issues, analyzes the situation in Northeast Asia from the perspective of the Korean Peninsula, and concludes by outlining possible countermeasures Taiwan might take in response to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
In summary, China will continue its Gray-zone strategy to strengthen its control over the Yellow Sea (West Sea), thereby influencing South Korea's policy towards China. However, due to the influence of the ROK-US relationship, China may not be able to achieve full control of the Yellow Sea in the short term, but it should have the capability to blockade it and put pressure on USFK military bases in the west. A confrontation between North Korea, China, and Russia versus South Korea, the US, and Japan has not yet materialized, but the Yellow Sea dispute may become a priority for China in handling its surrounding conflicts, deepening the connection between the Taiwan Strait issue and potentially creating a true "one theater". Therefore, it is necessary for us to continue to closely monitor the movements of North and South Korea in relation to the US and China, and to maintain multi-track dialogue between Taiwan and South Korea to preserve the current stability.