Abstract
The prolonged stalemate of the Russo–Ukrainian War has continued to shape the triangular relations among the United States, Russia, and China, while also reshaping the broader geopolitical landscape across Eurasia. Following his return to the White House, Donald Trump has actively intervened in the conflict in an effort to fulfill campaign commitments and facilitate a strategic reorientation of U.S. priorities toward the Indo-Pacific. However, Vladimir Putin’s persistent hardline stance has compelled Washington to shift from engagement to pressure, with limited tangible results. Meanwhile, U.S. attempts to leverage the war to drive a wedge between Russia and China and advance a strategy of “aligning with Russia to counter China” have thus far failed to produce significant breakthroughs. Overall, whether Trump’s intervention can alter Sino-Russian relations and contribute to a reconfiguration of the Indo-Pacific order hinges on two key factors: the prospects for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and Russia’s postwar capacity to sustain strategic coordination with China. Divergent outcomes will have critical implications for the Indo-Pacific power structure and trilateral interactions among the United States, Russia, and China.