Abstract
Widely described as a “global election year,” 2024 saw more than forty countries hold nationwide elections, producing outcomes that significantly reshaped the international political landscape. As this momentum carries into 2025, elections in several key democratic states remain critical windows for observing global political dynamics, particularly shifts in China’s international influence. From frontline states in the Indo-Pacific to advanced democracies farther afield, electoral outcomes not only determine domestic political trajectories but also shape strategic choices within the broader context of intensifying U.S.–China competition.
This article examines the role of the “China Factor” in major democratic elections in 2025 and analyzes how newly formed governments may adjust their China policies after elections. This research has two primary implications. First, it contributes to the growing scholarly and policy debate on China’s “sharp power” by comparing electoral cases across countries to better understand the evolution, effectiveness, and limitations of China’s influence operations, as well as the success or failure of democratic countermeasures. Second, by focusing on the China Factor, the study sheds light on the internal political dynamics and strategic recalibrations of democratic states amid renewed U.S.–China rivalry, especially under the uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his “Make America Great Again” agenda.
Focusing on six Indo-Pacific democracies—Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines as frontline states, and Canada, Australia, and Singapore as more distant yet strategically significant actors—the article analyzes three dimensions: China-related issues during electoral campaigns, China’s political interference, and post-election policy adjustments toward China.
This article finds that China’s influence operations have not stopped despite the dramatic changes in global geopolitics; on the contrary, they have permeated the political operations of various countries in a more complex and localized manner. On the other hand, in the face of China’s continuous and evolving political interference, democratic countries have shifted from a passive response to a more proactive defense system construction.