Abstract
In November 2015, Xi Jinping formally announced the comprehensive implementation of military reform, initiating a revolutionary restructuring of the leadership and command system, the military size, structure, and force composition, and military policy and institutions. In 2019, Xi Jinping further proposed a new "Three-Step" strategy for strengthening the military, marking two key timelines: First, ensuring the realization of the centennial goal of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by 2027; Second, basically achieving the modernization of national defense and the armed forces by 2035.
This article cites internal PLA teaching materials and Xi Jinping's internal speeches to demonstrate that 2027 is a critical phase for the PLA's committed transformation and upgrade to modernization. The goal is to actively build capabilities for a military invasion of Taiwan and the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) against U.S. intervention, rather than the immediate use of force against Taiwan.
This article asserts that 2035 represents a high-risk window for a PLA invasion of Taiwan. This assessment stems from Xi Jinping's "Three-Step" military strategy, which targets the basic modernization of the PLA by 2035. This modernization emphasizes achieving major breakthroughs in informatization, intelligentization, and the ability to conduct joint and multi-domain operations. The PLA thus believes it will be capable of winning an "informatized and intelligentized war" in the Taiwan Strait by that time. This new type of warfare will also be the fundamental form of the CCP's full-scale invasion of Taiwan and its denial of U.S. intervention a decade from now.
Keywords：New ”Three-Step” Military Strengthening Strategy, 2027 PLA Centennial Goal, 2035 High-Risk Invasion Taiwan, Informatized and Intelligentized War