Abstract
In 2025, the Pacific region experienced growing instability. The U.S. decision to dismantle the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) created a gap in foreign assistance, allowing China to expand its influence through “lawfare,” “gray-zone tactics,” and a “wedge strategy.” China repeatedly invoked UN Resolution 2758 to shape international discourse, but its claims were firmly refuted by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and failed to gain broader attention. Meanwhile, China conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea and sent naval formations around Australia, signaling clear pressure on Australia and New Zealand. Its separate agreement with the Cook Islands aimed to undermine the latter’s free-association ties with New Zealand and to secure access to seabed resources.
China’s activities prompted Australia, New Zealand, and Japan to strengthen military cooperation through new procurement, exercises, and increased defense spending. Pacific Island countries also played a role in shaping regional dynamics: Fiji opposed a potential Chinese military base in the South Pacific, while the Solomon Islands excluded non-member states from the Pacific Islands Forum it hosted. The broader impact of these developments remains to be seen.
Keywords: lawfare, gray-zone tactics, wedge strategy, geopolitics, South Pacific