中國在第一島鏈之節點延伸、外線推進與跨區聯動
2026.08.11
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壹、前言
國安會秘書長吳釗燮近日指出，2026年7月初中國沿第一島鏈展開大規模海上動員，彼軍艦與海警船超過110艘，數量創下歷史新高。[1]筆者認為，中國此次行動不宜只看成一次規模較大的演訓，而應視為其於第一島鏈周邊跨區運用海上力量的一環。
中國在第一島鏈周邊之壓力操作，並非近年始有。2015年《中國的軍事戰略》提出「近海防禦、遠海護衛」，將海軍任務由近海防禦延伸至遠海護航、通道安全與海外利益保護；2019年《新時代的中國國防》改以「近海防禦、遠海防衛」描述海軍建設方向，使遠海任務更具防衛縱深外推與遠域作戰色彩。2020年《中國人民解放軍聯合作戰綱要（試行）》進一步規範聯合作戰指揮與協同，為海空兵力、戰略威懾及後勤保障的跨區運用提供制度條件；嗣後海警執法機制的擴充，又增添另一層海上施壓手段。伴隨中國海軍遠海任務、海上維權機制與聯合作戰體系之轉化，其逐漸在台海、東海、南海及西太平洋形塑一套跨區壓力架構。請見圖1。
圖1、中國在第一島鏈的壓力線示意
說明：大圖以編號呈現六組空間變化：①西沙節點，表示永興島、羚羊礁與中建島之間的節點延伸；②美濟礁—仁愛暗沙—仙賓暗沙，表示南沙壓力由美濟礁繞經仁愛暗沙向仙賓暗沙推進；③民主礁—呂宋東方外海，表示中國海上力量由民主礁周邊繞至呂宋東側活動；④民主礁—蘇祿海—西里伯斯海，表示其經菲律賓內外海向更南方海域延伸；⑤台海—台灣東方外海，表示台灣周邊壓力由海峽一側繞向東部外海；⑥釣魚臺—沖之鳥島—南鳥島，表示中國海上力量由東海向西太平洋外推。右側東海、台海及南海分圖標示各節點與相對位置。圖中箭線表示壓力延伸方向，圓點表示節點或通過位置；線條僅用於呈現空間關係，不代表固定航線、正式作戰區、海域界線或任何主權立場。
資料來源：作者依本文所引官方資料及公開報導整理繪製。
此一架構牽涉三項安全意涵：壓力位置轉為多點、壓力線轉向側翼外線，以及軍警威懾壓力跨區化。
貳、安全意涵
一、多點施壓與戰術節點延伸
中國延長戰術節點，未必依靠奪取單一熱點，而是把既有對峙點擴展為可輪替施壓的多個位置，迫使對手分散海巡、防務、補給、調查與外交資源。如在西沙方向，中建島疑似建設反匿蹤雷達、羚羊礁持續疏浚填海，顯示威懾力量由永興島向越南方向外推；在南沙方向，其對菲占中業島的壓力已由渚碧礁延伸至鐵線礁及周邊水域；[2]又中國海警與調查船持續在東沙周邊活動，其官方船舶亦進入太平島限制水域，使台灣須在南海北端與南沙核心同時應對；韓國黃海平台案則顯示，中國亦可透過結構物與海警阻擋，將未定界水域轉化為新的壓力節點，迫使對手陷入多點巡護與多線應處的困境。[3]
二、繞道推進與外線施壓
繞道推進是指中國在原熱點之外另闢側翼、後方與外線，迫使對手拉長監控、補給與防衛範圍。南沙方面，壓力由仁愛暗沙推向更接近巴拉望的仙賓暗沙；中國軍艦亦自民主礁（黃岩島）附近南下，經民都洛東側、庫約島、巴西蘭海峽與錫布圖水道進入蘇祿海。[4]呂宋周邊活動則由西側轉向東側，2026年4月解放軍艦隊已在呂宋島以東演訓。日本方向，中國船艦由釣魚台海域外推至沖之鳥礁、南鳥島與西太平洋。[5]按艦載機起降架次顯示，相關行動已與較高強度的海空運用相互連結。[6]更遠處則延伸至塔斯曼海與阿拉斯加。在台海方面，傳統西側對峙帶也持續向西南、東南及東側擴張，海警巡航與執法表述亦延伸至台灣東側海域。這些行動共同構成以外線繞行壓縮對手反應縱深的推進方式。
三、跨區兵力聯動與戰略威懾外推
2024年12月近90艘海軍與海警船艦部署，格外能呈現中國如何把不同海域串成同一個軍警壓力面。當時中國船艦同時出現在台灣周邊、琉球以南、東海與南海方向，並設置福建、浙江外海七處臨時保留空域。[7] 2026年7月中國船艦在第一島鏈範圍大規模活動與前者的共同之處，在於軍警力量同時出現在不同海域，使台灣、日本與菲律賓等沿線國家備感壓力。
此外，2026年7月6日中國海軍戰略核潛艦向太平洋公海試射一枚攜載模擬彈頭的潛射彈道飛彈，也呈現戰略威懾向島鏈外緣延伸的趨勢。[8]此次試射把海基核威懾活動推向太平洋，使第一島鏈外緣、第二島鏈及南太平洋周邊國家同受該戰略訊號所覆蓋。[9]
參、趨勢研判
一、美日澳菲合作轉向區域作戰網絡
中國機動軍力擴張之勢，已使美日澳菲等國家之防衛合作持續深化。2026年以前，美日澳菲合作的重點主要是透過聯合巡弋及年度演習表達政治團結，支持菲律賓在南海的海洋權利。2026年以來，相關合作逐步納入第一島鏈防衛規劃，以北呂宋、巴拉望及菲律賓周邊海域為主要節點，演練岸基反艦、反登陸、整合防空、反潛與跨國海上編組。[10]
此外，駐日美軍升級為聯合部隊司令部（Joint Force Headquarters）、日本建立統合作戰司令部、美菲成立菲律賓任務部隊（Task Force-Philippines），顯示第一島鏈沿線的合作正由駐軍、聯演及單項能力建構，推向更即時的聯合操作、態勢覺知與任務協調。[11]
二、第一島鏈防衛強化外線聯防
包含美軍在北菲部署中程能力系統、陸戰隊濱海團演練反艦飛彈，乃至於透過聯合演訓強化防空與無人機應處，[12]顯示其正強化分散部署、遠距打擊與盟軍互通。隨中國由既有熱點向側翼、後方及外線推進，第一島鏈防衛的重點也逐步由近岸據點防護，延伸至海峽側後方、島鏈外側及遠端後勤線。
至於日本西南諸島的反艦、防空及反擊能力，亦將與台海側後方、琉球以東及西太平洋縱深防衛連結；[13]澳洲北部、南太平洋、巴布亞紐幾內亞、菲律賓與南海之間的演訓及後勤網絡，則可支撐第一島鏈南翼、第二島鏈前緣與南太平洋方向。第一島鏈防衛勢將形成由前緣火力、外線制海、遠端後勤與跨區監偵共同支撐的聯防配置，以因應中國繞道推進及跨區兵力運用。[14]
三、跨區競逐提高嚇阻效果與衝突風險
中國壓力架構的形塑與周邊國家防衛合作的深化，將同時提高區域嚇阻能力與衝突風險。美日澳菲透過分散部署、反艦防空、監偵共享及指揮協調，固然可提高中國高強度行動的成本，也有助於提早掌握解放軍跨區兵力調動。[15]然而，中國把活動範圍由既有熱點延伸至呂宋東側、琉球以東、西太平洋及南太平洋後，中台、中菲、中日及中美海空兵力的接觸位置與衝突風險也隨之增加。
[1] “Taiwan Says It Is Tracking ‘Upward Trend’ in Chinese Naval Movements,” Reuters, July 6, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-says-it-is-tracking-upward-trend-chinese-naval-movements-2026-07-06/.
[2] “China Coastguard Claims ‘Sovereign Jurisdiction’ of Sandy Cay in South China Sea,” South China Morning Post, April 25, 2025, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3307831/china-coastguard-claims-sovereign-jurisdiction-sandy-cay-south-china-sea; “Philippines Says China Has Not Seized Disputed South China Sea Reef,” Reuters, April 28, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-china-has-not-seized-disputed-south-china-sea-reef-2025-04-28/.
[3] Gregory B. Poling, Harrison Prétat, and Andrea Leonard Palazzi, “Chinese Platforms in the Yellow Sea’s South Korea-China Provisional Measures Zone,” Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 2025, https://amti.csis.org/chinese-platforms-in-the-yellow-seas-south-korea-china-pmz/.
[4] “WPS Spokesperson: 3 Chinese Navy Vessels Leaving EEZ,” Philippine News Agency, February 4, 2025, https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1243319; Armed Forces of the Philippines Western Mindanao Command, “Press Statement on the Monitored PLA Chinese Navy Ships,” February 3, 2025, https://www.facebook.com/richard.falcatan/posts/press-statementon-the-monitored-plachinese-navy-ships-camp-navarro-calarian-zamb/10162308565084168/.
[5] “Two Chinese Aircraft Carriers Seen in Pacific for First Time, Japan Says,” Reuters, June 10, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/two-chinese-aircraft-carriers-seen-pacific-first-time-japan-says-2025-06-10/; “Japan Confirms China’s Aircraft Carrier Sailed East of Iwo Jima for First Time,” Reuters, June 9, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/japan-confirms-chinas-aircraft-carrier-sailed-east-iwo-jima-first-time-2025-06-09/.
[6] Dzirhan Mahadzir, “Chinese Aircraft Carriers Conduct about 1,120 Flight Ops near Japan,” Naval News, June 24, 2025, https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/06/chinese-aircraft-carriers-conduct-about-1120-flight-ops-near-japan/.
[7] “Taiwan Military Sets up Emergency Response Ahead of Chinese Drills,” Reuters, December 9, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-military-sets-up-emergency-response-ahead-chinese-drills-2024-12-09/.
[8] “China Test Fires Missile into Pacific, Alarming Regional Powers,” Reuters, July 6, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-test-fires-missile-into-pacific-alarming-regional-powers-2026-07-06/; Christopher Bodeen, “What to Know about China’s Rare Ballistic Missile Test and Why It Raises Concerns,” Associated Press, July 7, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/28df0be8121a5af6e7f281c738c06ba3.
[9] “Australia, Solomon Islands Vow Stronger Ties, Criticise China’s Pacific Missile Test,” Reuters, July 7, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/australia-vows-stronger-ties-with-solomon-islands-amid-china-concerns-2026-07-07/.
[10] “US Army’s Mid-Range Capability Makes Its First Deployment in the Philippines for Salaknib 24,” U.S. Army Pacific, April 15, 2024, https://www.usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-News/Article-Display/Article/3740807/us-armys-mid-range-capability-makes-its-first-deployment-in-the-philippines-for/; “US, Philippines Deploy Anti-Ship Missile System in Batanes near Taiwan for War Games,” Reuters, May 2, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-philippines-deploy-anti-ship-missile-system-batanes-near-taiwan-war-games-2026-05-02/; “US, Philippine Troops Shoot down Drones in Joint Defence Drills,” Reuters, April 27, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-philippine-troops-shoot-down-drones-in-joint-defence-drills-2025-04-27/.
[11] “U.S. Intends to Reconstitute U.S. Forces Japan as Joint Forces Headquarters,” U.S. Department of Defense, July 28, 2024, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3852213/us-intends-to-reconstitute-us-forces-japan-as-joint-forces-headquarters/; “U.S. Upgrades Military Command in Japan, Warns of China Threats,” Reuters, July 28, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-announce-military-command-revamp-japan-official-says-2024-07-28/; Ministry of Defense, Japan, Digest, “Defense of Japan 2025,” July 2025, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/press/wp/wp2025/pdf/DOJ2025_Digest_EN.pdf; “US, Philippines Launch Military Task Force for Areas Including South China Sea,” Indo-Pacific Defense Forum, November 1, 2025, https://ipdefenseforum.com/2025/11/us-philippines-launch-military-task-force-for-areas-including-south-china-sea/.
[12] “US, Philippine Troops Shoot down Drones in Joint Defence Drills,” Reuters, April 27, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-philippine-troops-shoot-down-drones-joint_defence_drills-2025-04-27/.
[13] Ministry of Defense, “Japan, Defense Buildup Program,” December 16, 2022, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/policy/agenda/guideline/plan/pdf/program_en.pdf; Ministry of Defense, Japan, “Defense of Japan 2025,” July 2025, https://www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_paper/wp2025/DOJ2025_EN_Full.pdf.
[14] “Australia Hosts Military Drills with US and Other Nations, Likely to Draw Chinese Surveillance,” Associated Press, July 13, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/e236e5ed9173bc766c2ed73441b3efda.
[15] “U.S., Japan, Republic of Korea Conduct Trilateral Multi-Domain Exercise Freedom Edge,” U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, June 27, 2024, https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/3818596/us-japan-republic-of-korea-conduct-trilateral-multi-domain-exercise-freedom-edge/; “U.S. Intends to Reconstitute U.S. Forces Japan as Joint Forces Headquarters,” U.S. Department of Defense, July 28, 2024, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3852213/us-intends-to-reconstitute-us-forces-japan-as-joint-forces-headquarters/.