Experts Survey: U.S. and Taiwan Views on China's Approach to Taiwan

The year 2024, holds immense significance for Taiwan, cross-strait relations, and U.S.-Taiwan ties. The recent election of William Lai as Taiwan's next president on January 13 has set the stage for heightened tensions between Taipei and Beijing. As the global focus turns towards 2024 and beyond, pivotal questions arise about potential Chinese actions to coerce Taiwan or facilitate unification. Will China consider quarantine, blockade, or military invasion? The conditions under which Beijing might undertake these actions, China's capability, and the recommended approaches for Taiwan, the United States, and their allies are crucial considerations. Additionally, how certain geopolitical shifts influence Beijing's decision-making is a key aspect.

In collaboration with the CSIS China Power Project, the Institute of National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) has conducted a survey involving leading experts and former officials from the United States and Taiwan. The survey results offer valuable insights into areas of agreement and divergence in the assessments of China's approach to Taiwan. This report aims to provide a comprehensive summary of the survey findings and offers an analysis of their broader implications.

Surveying the Experts PDF