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Release of the 2024 Third Wave of the "Taiwan Defense Security Public Opinion Survey" by the INDSR for External Use
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818
2024.10.23
Author
李冠成
Division of Chinese Politics, Military and Warfighting Concepts Kuan-chen Lee Assistant Research Fellow

[Introduction]
As a democratic country, the government needs to understand public opinion, especially in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment where it is crucial to effectively grasp public attitudes and changes regarding defense policies. Since 2021, INDSR has commissioned the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University to conduct public opinion polls. Through data accumulation and scientific analysis, this initiative aims to provide recommendations for government defense policies while also releasing all survey data for external researchers and experts.

 

The current survey theme is "Security Challenges and International Changes: 2024 Taiwan Defense and Foreign Policy Public Opinion Survey." The survey targets residents of Taiwan aged 18 and over and is conducted via random sampling through telephone interviews. The survey period took place from September 11 to September 16, 2024, executed by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University. A total of 1,214 responses were completed, comprising 851 landline samples and 363 mobile samples. With a confidence level of 95%, the maximum potential random sampling error is estimated at ±2.81%.

 


[Summary of the Latest Survey Results]

1. Regarding the security challenges facing Taiwan, 63.9% of respondents view "China's territorial ambitions" as a "serious threat," while 19.4% consider it an "important but not serious threat," and only 9.5% regard it as "not a significant threat."

2. In comparison to other challenges facing our country, the percentage of those who see "China's territorial ambitions" as a serious threat is similar to those regarding "extreme weather and natural disasters" (66.7%) and "economic stagnation" (63.3%), indicating that the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party to Taiwan's national security is on par with economic development and climate change.

3. The survey shows that 24.3% of respondents believe the People's Liberation Army might attack Taiwan within five years, while the majority (61%) feel it is unlikely or very unlikely that the Chinese Communist Army will invade Taiwan in that timeframe. This suggests that while Taiwanese people recognize the threat, they maintain a level of calm and rationality regarding the prospect of war.

4. In terms of public attitudes towards Taiwan's defense readiness, faced with the threat from the Chinese Communist Party, if China were to use military force against Taiwan, a majority (67.8%) of respondents would be willing (somewhat willing or very willing) to fight to defend Taiwan, indicating a certain level of self-defense determination and will to resist among the Taiwanese public.

5. However, public confidence in the military's defense capabilities is somewhat lacking. The survey finds that 47.5% have confidence in the military's defense capabilities, while 47.9% do not have confidence. Although the percentage difference is not significant, to boost public confidence in the military, the government should not only continue to promote defense reforms and strengthen military capabilities but also enhance military transparency to build trust between the military and the public.

6. Regarding the defense budget, 49.1% of respondents support increasing the government’s defense budget, even if it may cause budget crowding effects, while about 43.8% do not support it. Aside from resource crowding, the survey also explored public attitudes towards raising taxes to increase the defense budget, finding that 48.7% of respondents are in favor, while 45.8% are opposed. These results indicate that there is no consensus in Taiwanese society regarding increasing the defense budget.

7. In assessing international situations, less than 40% (38%) believe that if Russia were to win the war against Ukraine, China might (somewhat likely and very likely) follow Russia's example and invade Taiwan, indicating that the majority of Taiwanese people do not connect the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war to the Taiwan Strait.

8. In terms of foreign policy, over 70% (72%) of respondents believe that developing Taiwan-Japan relations would enhance Taiwan's national security, while only 15% think that such relations would weaken it. Regarding Taiwan's relationship with the United States, more than 60% (62%) believe that the Taiwan-U.S. relationship strengthens Taiwan's national security, while about 24% feel that it weakens Taiwan's security. This indicates that the majority of the public supports the current government’s foreign policy direction and believes that deepening ties with the U.S. and Japan is beneficial for national security.

9. Regarding perceptions of allied support, if China were to invade Taiwan, respondents assessed the likelihood of U.S. assistance in various forms. Approximately 74.8% believe the U.S. would "airlift food or medical supplies to Taiwan"; 73.4% think the U.S. would "impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on China"; 76.3% believe the U.S. would "provide weapons and military supplies to Taiwan"; 52.6% think the U.S. would "send troops to Taiwan to assist in defense"; and about 39.6% believe the U.S. would "break through China's blockade of Taiwan with naval forces, even if it might spark a U.S.-China conflict."

10. These results suggest that if China were to use military force against Taiwan, the majority (over 70%) of the public believes the U.S. would offer indirect assistance to Taiwan, but there is some reservation regarding the possibility of direct U.S. military involvement in the Taiwan Strait conflict. Furthermore, differing evaluations among supporters of various political parties regarding the nature and likelihood of U.S. assistance against a Chinese invasion highlight the complex relationship between domestic political polarization and confidence in allies.

 


[Application Process]
To apply for the use of this data, please fill out the data application form. Before applying, carefully read the "Data Release Guidelines" and the questionnaire items for each wave. After completing the form, please send it to indsrpoll@gmail.com. Upon receiving and reviewing the application form for accuracy, the data will be sent to the applicant via email. Applicants must comply with the relevant regulations outlined in the Institute's "Data Release Guidelines" when using the data.

 

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