Abstract
This chapter discusses the results of the European Parliament (EP) election held June 6-9, 2024, with a focus on the prospects of the EU’s foreign policy. While institutionally the EP only indirectly influences the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) by, inter alia, approving the Commission President and other commissioners, politically, the election is a crucial barometer for voter sentiment, as they vote for their national political parties, which then form political groups in the EP. The election results indicate that the center, which consists of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the Renew Europe, remain in power. This suggests a degree of continuity in the EU’s major policies going forward, as evidenced by Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election as President of the European Commission. While populist and far-right groups also made inroads in the election, their divisions prevent them from forming a real challenge to the centrists.
The rise of the populist and far-right groups, however, cannot be overlooked. Throughout years of advocation, it has become normal in EU politics for people to express anti-immigration and/or anti-climate stances. The centrists may at times find it necessary to accommodate the right-wing’s demands. Moreover, as the CFSP is determined by the heads of states or governments, the rise of far-right parties in France and Germany is likely to undermine the leaders’ political influence, driving them to focus more on domestic issues than on external ones. Overall, while the EU’s foreign policy should remain stable, some turbulence generated by the right-wing cannot be ruled out. The coming U.S. presidential election is the most important factor to watch for, as it will shape future cross-Atlantic relationships.