By Hsu Hui Yi

For a long time, the “western model” has become the example to emulate in the world. The “western system” established as an indestructible model for nearly a hundred years has guided global progress more than we can imagine. Japan, adopting the “western model” and “western system”, is one of Asia’s advanced and prosperous countries. Concerning for all countries in the world, China has tried to reverse such norms and values in an attempt to end the so-called “western model” and create its own “eastern successful model” to replace it. China’s “The Belt and Road” initiative is the best symbol for attempting to achieve the “eastern successful model.” It can be seen that the will and intention of China to become a world power is very strong and positive, though more aggressive.

Flip the “western model” and use “The Belt and Road” to draw in the surrounding countries, thereby extending the forces─ Since 2013, China has officially organized and systemized “The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road” into “The Belt and Road (Abbreviation B&R or BRI)” and regarded it as its most important initiative in recent years. It promotes a strategic policy of creating a transnational economic belt. “The Belt and Road” physically covers a wide area, through central, north and west Asia, the Indian ocean coast, and the Mediterranean countries. Through the principle of “communication, co-construction and sharing”, China will realize more perfect, safe and efficient infrastructure along the route to form a higher level of land, sea and air exchange network. At the same time, it will effectively improve the convenience of investment and trade. The vision is to build a high-quality and high-standard free trade regional network, so that the economic ties between countries along the route are closer, political mutual trust is deeper, and humanities exchanges are more extensive. It will also further achieve China’s strategic goal of seeking to dominate the world. For China’s domestic politics, “The Belt and Road” has become a “national top-level strategy” and can be regarded as the general program for China’s future opening to the world. In fact, “The Belt and Road” flaunts the great vision of “leading shared development, increasing economic density, shortening economic distance, breaking barriers and creating new development space” and, instead, raises the suspicious of Asia-Pacific and Western countries over China’s economic imperialism. The development of China’s “The Belt and Road” has indeed evolved from the “peer-to-peer” trade pattern of the past to the “strip” or even “blocky” concept of comprehensive development. It is a kind of “block-like path” sweep, China’s intention to “replace the United States” is very obvious.

The ancient Greek philosopher Thucydides had an argument: “A newly emerging power must challenge the existing powers, and the existing powers will inevitably respond to such threats, so that war becomes inevitable.” This is the so-called “Thucydides’ trap”. Since ancient times, there have been 16 times when battles were fought between the first empire and the second empire. There have been 12 bloody wars, and only 4 of the battles have ended peacefully. The current battle between the United States and China, even if bloodless, has already produced serious confrontation at all levels.

Let countries along “The Belt and Road” create “necessary dependence” on China─ From the strategic meaning of “The Belt and Road”, China wants to create a “necessary dependence” of the countries along the line, and divide the world into the concept of a central country, a border country and a half-border country. The center is composed of industrial countries, while the border countries export raw materials to the central countries and are mainly engaged in labor-intensive industries. Therefore, the dependence causes the backwardness and inequality of the border countries, and the central countries rely on this relationship to maintain higher wages and trade interests and weaken the class contradictions in the country. China has attempted to break away from the economic and trade system that has long been dominated by Europe and the United States, and establish its own European, Asian and African economic and trade roads, linking the eastern hemisphere and the western hemisphere. If “The Belt and Road” can be successful, China will not only enjoy economic and fruitful achievements, but also extend its military strength to Europe and Southeast Asia. At that time, the center of the politics and economics in the world will be controlled by China, and the geopolitical advantage will also tilt towards to China. However, after five years of seeing “The Belt and Road” take shape, more and more countries are now waking up to and fearful of China’s intentions. Frankly, “The Belt and Road” isn’t a mistake, what is wrong is China’s aggressive intentions and means.

Adopting backward policies to resolve China’s domestic problems with little certainty the strategy will lead to domestic economic improvement─ China’s “The Belt and Road” policy is mainly to eliminate some of China’s large-scale, overcapacity in its manufacturing sector, including steel, coal, glass manufacturing, cement, metallurgy and other traditional manufacturing industries; accelerate the overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises; and push them to develop high-end products to allow, countries along the belt and road to digest China’s overcapacity. At the same time, China wants the countries along the route to advance and develop, too. In this mode of operation, “State-owned enterprise first and private enterprise later” is the way that China first promotes and extends the strategy. Such a way has also triggered criticism from all walks of life in China. It is believed that “The Belt and Road” policy is currently driven by state-owned enterprises without meaningful participation by private enterprises. Although the national enterprises have a clear “national strategic” and “public welfare” goal to make it easy for China to achieve its goal of world economy and trade in China, this strategy will also cause China to fall into the “Middle Income Trap”, which will inevitably affect the overall economic growth momentum of China. In addition, whether such a strategic goal can bring benefits back to China is still unknown. In fact, some scholars believe that “The Belt and Road” is not a progressive and effective policy, but a rather backward one. China’s non-commercial packaging of its infrastructure support for the host country, its naked means of aggression, and then taking control of the rights and exploiting Chinese interests – all this has increased the negative effects and impression of “The Belt and Road”. Therefore, the operation of “The Belt and Road” policy is wrong.

Aggressive propaganda is fearful─ The Western countries’ view of China is a kind of governance and aggression model of “authoritarianist”, “controlling” and “expansion planning”. Some Chinese scholars believe that the propaganda methods of relevant departments in China supporting “The Belt and Road” and “Made in China 2025” are ironclad evidence that China intends to challenge the world order, especially China is a communist authoritarian state able to effectively nationalize and militarize the economy.

“Indo-Pacific strategic policy” attempts to counter “The Belt and Road”─ China's “The Belt and Road” policy is constantly being adjusted following the changes of world's situation. “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond”, published by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in January 2013, called for the establishment of security mechanisms among the United States, Japan, Australia and India. The “Indo-Pacific strategy” proposed by US President Donald Trump in Asia in November 2017 was regarded by the outside world as an endorsement and enhanced version of the policy proposed by Prime Minister Abe. The deeper strategic implications are to counter the strategic goals of China’s “The Belt and Road” policy. The United States and Japan have established a substantive alliance strategic goal, and inevitably, the US-Japan alliance model will be established.

Further countering “The Belt and Road”, US Congressman Ted Yoho, Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific said the United States International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC), which provides financing of US$ 60 billion, will join with other development financial organizations in the world to become a counterweight to China’s “The Belt and Road”. This also means that the United States hopes to find a way to provide a clear option and an alternative to Chinese ambitions.

European countries’ counter-forces are getting bigger and louder─ At the 2018 Munich Security Conference, former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel strongly attacked China’s “The Belt and Road”. He believes that ‘The Belt and Road Initiative’ is not only an economic aggression, but also the Communist Party of China is promoting a set of values system that is different from the West. The CCP’s system is not based on freedom, democracy and human rights, but on the basis of its own interests, to reshape the world completely. He also proposed that “the EU should launch a new initiative to use the EU’s funds and standards to develop infrastructure in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa”. During his visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron also stated that “‘The Belt and Road’ should not be a new hegemonic road, so that the countries that pass through become vassals.” British Prime Minister Theresa May has also indicated in her writings rejecting China’s policy of removing the transparency and international standards of “The Belt and Road.” This is China’s crisis. Western countries have been unable to endure China’s repeated rejection of its willingness to move toward reform and opening up, particularly after the CCP abolished presidential term limits. What is even more unacceptable is that China has exerted tremendous efforts to undermine the international order of democracy, freedom and the rule of law that countries have established.

Using trade wars to fight against China, winning Republican midterm elections and re-election─ Since the US-China trade war, US President Trump’s domestic support at home has risen sharply, improving his image. His tactics against China have given him a rare broad base of support in the United States. But the fact is, there is no absolute winner in the US-China trade war. At best, it is only a winner or loser in a relative sense. In other words, in this trade war, both China and the United States will inevitably suffer losses, although China may be worse off. Judging from the domestic politics of the United States, since Trump took office, a series of diplomatic and internal affairs incidents have caused his popularity and poll numbers to fall. Dramatic and unconventional methods have made it difficult for the average American population to adapt. Until this year, Trump gradually realized the campaign policy of “great tax reduction” before the election, vowed to find the employment peak in the United States and re-create the US manufacturing glory: “America First”, and successfully promoted the US unemployment rate to 4%. This brilliant figure is a miracle for such a large and mature economy in the United States. Now, president Trump began to attack on the issue of trade deficit with China. It is actually a rigorously calculated political strategy that in fact it is a rigorously calculated political strategy. The main purpose is this year's US midterm elections and the next presidential re-election.

The United States fosters South American countries in an attempt to transfer the existing Chinese market to South America─ For a long time, South American countries have been called the backyard of the United States. The United States not only regards it as a territoriality, but also does not allow other countries to invade nor interfere. Since China snatched three of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in South America, the United States has awakened to the crisis in its own backyard. The United States has imposed trade sanctions on China and at the same time actively repaired relations and fostered South America in trade and support to offset the loss of the Chinese market. China’s “The Belt and Road” policy, undemocratic system and actions that do not respect human rights have given countries around the world a strong reason to “enclose China”. Although there are many historical factors between the United States and South American countries, this doesn’t prevent the intention of the United States to re-operate in South America.

Authoritarian management, low profit, black box process, the pushback from countries along “The Belt and Road”─ In fact, China’s “The Belt and Road” policy has not been considered a success. In Pakistan, Tanzania, Hungary, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand, etc., “The Belt and Road” related projects have been cancelled, renegotiated, shelved, etc. According to media reports, local authorities have complained that the cost of “The Belt and Road” project was too high. After the Chinese companies took over, the profits of the countries along “The Belt and Road Initiative” were too low and they had to repay the loans to China. And the opacity of the relevant tendering process was also unacceptable for these countries.

Malaysia was the first to counter attack. New Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has repeatedly threatened to stop “The Belt and Road” implementation project between the US$20 billion East Coast Railway project and the US$ 2.3 billion Sabah Gas Pipeline after the election. On the one hand, it has shelved “The Belt and Road” project with China, on the other hand, it has proposed to expand investment with China in the trade and high-tech fields. Malaysia is fully aware of China’s “The Belt and Road” intention, so it is not only trying to maintain a harmonious relationship with China, but also using China’s energy to make up for its shortcomings, while at the same time not to let China easily achieve its geopolitical goals.

Adjustment of China’s “The Belt and Road” Policy─ China’s “The Belt and Road” has been in operation for five years. Chinese government has felt pressure from the pushback of countries along “The Belt and Road”. China is well aware that if the policy is not adjusted, “The Belt and Road” policy is likely to be “dead”, prompting. So Chinese President Xi Jinping to immediately adjusted the policy. He has stressed that, “The Belt and Road” is an economic cooperation initiative, not a geopolitical alliance or a military alliance, it is an open and inclusive process, not a closed-door small circle or “Chinese clubs”. As long as countries have the will, China welcomes them to join the initiative. However, China’s adjustment of the policy and whether countries along the route can accept it are still open to question.

“The Belt and Road” transition period is ahead of schedule? ─ From the macroeconomic level, the Chinese government hopes that “The Belt and Road” will help solve the problem of China's capital and overcapacity and bring a new round of economic growth to China. Chinese scholars predict, the entire implementation process of “the Belt and Road” will be long-term, spanning at least 30 to 40 years. However, going at its current rate and given the rising confrontation between the United States and China, will "The Belt and Road" need to be “transformed” in its second five years? Judging from the fact that China has already begun to adjust the policy, the probability of early transformation is very high.

No one will deny that China is a “big country”. But it is doubtful if there is agreement on China being a “powerful country.” In fact, since the reform and opening up of China from 1978, the improvement and strengthening of its overall comprehensive national strength has resulted in China becoming the world’s second largest economy. The launch of “The Belt and Road” means China wants to go from a “big country” to a “the world’s number one power”. The United States is concerned about China’s strong intentions and has begun to hammer at China on strategy and trade. The United States not only wants to repel China’s intention to replace the first power, but also attempts to rebuild the world system and order by trade war. In the current US-China trade war, China can only delay the tactics, delay the change, and strengthen institutional construction as soon as possible and then adjust the implementation strategy of “The Belt and Road”. China faces the distrust of Europe and the United States and the awakening of Asian countries. How China, a kind of hegemonic state, changes its own pace without complete “coordination capabilities” is indeed worthy of attention. After the end of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the next goal of China is the ASEAN National Cooperation Project. However, after the initial boycott of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir, how should China’s “ASEAN Road” develop? All countries in the world are paying close attention.