Taiwan implemented a 14-day “New Training Call-up System” (“New System”) for the military for the first time on March 5, 2022. Compared to the older system, the New System not only increases the training frequency and duration, but also significantly raises training intensity. In addition to requiring the reservists to report directly to their tactical positions to familiarize themselves with the battlefield environment, the course also includes tactical marching, camping, more live-fire shots, and more combat maneuver training hours, making it the “toughest call-up ever”.[1] Although the Ministry of Defense adjusted the compensation and allowances of enterprises and personnel in line with the New System, the call-up is, after all, a recall of discharged soldiers to the military. The impact on their daily work and life is still inevitable.[2] In view of this, this article attempts to understand the people’s views on the New System through polling and analyzing the key factors that influence their opinion of the New System to explore possible ways to promote public support for the New System.[3]

2-1. Over 60% of respondents support New System

To measure the public’s support for the New System, the poll asked respondents, “Do you support the military to increase the frequency and duration of the call-up?” The findings: 28.6% of respondents said they are strongly supportive of the new system; 32.3% said they are somewhat supportive; 28.4% said they are not very supportive; 9.2% said they are definitely not supportive; and 1.5% did not know what a call-up was (see Figure 1). Overall, more than 60% of the respondents supported the military’s promotion of the New System. Please refer to the Appendix for more details on the distribution and cross-tabulation analysis.

2-2. 2. Age doesn’t matter in supporting New System

The target of the call-up is determined based on when full discharge is set according to the rank of the reservists. In the case of voluntary, professional service men and women, the age of discharge is 45; but generally, most candidates for the call-up are younger people who recently left the military, so it is understandable that this group may be the most opposed to the New System. However, the survey found that although respondents from different backgrounds had different attitudes towards the New System, the overall difference was minimal (see Figure 2). For example, 65% of the male respondents supported the New System, while the percentage of female supporters dropped to 57%. Of the respondents aged between 20 and 39, 59% supported the New System, only 5% lower than those aged 40 or above. The difference in support for the New System between respondents with or without a college degree was even smaller, only about 2%. The results show that the demographic difference of the respondents are not the main factor affecting their support of the New System.

Note:

1. Decimal points are rounded to the nearest whole number.

2. “Support” includes “Strongly supportive” and “somewhat supportive”, and “unsupportive” includes “not very supportive” and “definitely not supportive”. The answer to “what’s a call-up?” was categorized as “no response” and excluded from the analysis.

Source: Compiled by Lee Kuan-chen from “Online Survey on Taiwanese People’s Views on National Defense Policy”.

2-3. “Threat awareness”, “impression of military” and “confidence in training” are key factors

The survey further revealed that respondents’ threat awareness, the impression of the military, and confidence in the call-up training were the key factors affecting their support for the New System. For example, Figure 3 shows that 66% of respondents who perceived the CCP’s military threat to Taiwan to be serious supported increasing the frequency and duration of call-ups by the military, while only 37% of respondents who did not consider the threat serious supported it. This means that the public’s awareness of threats from China is the first factor in galvanizing the will to resist and strengthen the defense readiness. Moreover, in the cross-tabulation analysis of the impression of the military and support for the New System, the poll results showed that among those who had a better impression of the military, a higher percentage, about 67%, of respondents supported the New System; on the other hand, those who had a poor impression of the military showed less support at 47%. Finally, respondents’ confidence in the training also significantly affected their support for the New System. 76% of those who were confident in the training supported the New System, but only 55% of those who were less confident showed their support. This means that besides the threat awareness, people’s impression of the armed forces and the effectiveness of the training were also key factors affecting the support for the New System.

Note:

3. Decimal points are rounded to the nearest whole number.

4. “Support” includes “Strongly supportive” and “somewhat supportive”, and “unsupportive” includes “not very supportive” and “definitely not supportive”. The answer to “what’s a call-up?” was categorized as “no response” and excluded from the analysis.

Source: Compiled by Lee Kuan-chen from “Online Survey on Taiwanese People’s Views on National Defense Policy”.

3-1. I. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosts public support for New System

The New System call-up coincided with the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Although Ukraine and Taiwan are geographically apart in Europe and the Western Pacific respectively, they are similar in terms of their geostrategic and domestic political situations; that’s why Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is often associated to whether China will invade Taiwan.[4] Although the situation in Ukraine may not be directly analogous to that of Taiwan, the conflict in Ukraine has sparked much discussion in Taiwan about the possibility of a Chinese invasion and the level of Taiwan’s military readiness. Since the poll found that threat awareness is a factor influencing Taiwanese people’s support for the New System, it cannot be ruled out that since the war between Russia and Ukraine, there has been an increase of people’s support for Taiwan’s new reservist training program.

3-2. Better image and training of miliary to strengthen support for call-up

One of the most criticized problems of the military is its perceived superficiality. For the general public, the perception of the call-up was often just a “show” not much more than gathering the reservists and finishing the days safely.[5] After decades, the call-up has been seen as a just a waste of time. This kind of optic of “superficial readiness” certainly cannot win people’s support. If the call-up training can familiarize the reservists with the battlefield environment, weapons, and survival skills, they will know how to protect themselves and survive when a war unfortunately breaks out. Even if they are not going to the frontline, the call-up will be more meaningful to the public. Since people showed their support for the New System in the poll when they have a better impression of the military and more confidence in the training, it is necessary to improve the image and training of the armed forces in the long run to further increase public support for the call-ups.

Do you support the Army to increase the frequency and duration of the call-up?
Strongly supportive	Somewhat supportive		Not Supportive	Definitely not supportive		“What’s a call-up?”		Samples
28.6%	32.3%		28.4%	9.2%		1.5%		1498
		Do you support the Army to increase the frequency and duration of the call-up?
		Supportive			Not supportive		Samples
Gender:
Male		65%			35%		878
Female		57.1%			42.9%		597
Age:
20-39		58.8%			41.2%		529
40 or above		63.5%			36.5%		946
Education:
With		62.9%			37.1%		367
University and above		61.5%			38.5%		1108
PLA military threat:
Serious		65.9%			34.1%		1266
Not Serious		37.3%			62.7%		209
Impression of ROC Armed Forces:
Good		67.3%			32.7%		1073
Bad		47.3%			52.7%		402
ROC Armed Forces training:
Confident		75.6%			24.4%		495
Not Confident		54.9%			45.1%		980

(Originally published in the 50th “National Defense and Security Biweekly”, March 25, 2022, by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.)

(The contents and advice in the assessments are the personal opinions of the authors, and do not represent the position of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research)