The factors that determine Japan-Russia relations can be summarized as (1) Territorial Disputes, (2) Energy Supply, (3) Great Power factors. After Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine, Japan-Russia relations have become tense. It is worth paying attention to how the above-mentioned factors affect the Japan-Russia relations.

Before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Japan and Russia shelved the territorial dispute to develop relations under the influence of energy supply and the great power factors. However, after the outbreak of the crisis, Japan started to impose sanctions on Russia due to the great power factor, which also made the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia become tense, however, the energy supply relationship was not affected. After the crisis in Ukraine, Russia will be bound to rely on energy exports to revive its economy, and it is expected that the energy supply relationship with Japan will be maintained. In terms of major power relations, as Russia has suffered great losses in the war, it must actively draw in all major powers, and there is no motivation to confront Japan directly. In addition, in order to maintain the stability of the regime, Putin's claim to the territory Japan wants returned will be more entrenched.

On the other hand, Japan is constrained by the great power factor and must maintain a similar position to the United States and G7 on sanctions against Russia. In terms of energy issues, Japan has already obtained an understanding from the U.S. on importing Russian natural gas, and there is no pressure to cut off the energy supply from Russia at this stage, therefore energy issues will still play a key role in Japan-Russia relations. In terms of territorial disputes, the Japanese government used to want to accelerate the process of territorial negotiations with large-scale investment and the “Return of 2 islands” proposal, but recently Japanese public opinion has questioned the above means and advocated a return to the “Return of 4 islands” proposal. After the end of the Ukraine crisis, it is assumed that Japan-Russia economic activities will be delinked from the territorial issue and eventually return to basic needs such as energy trade.