Chapter 7 Russo-Ukrainian War and Russia’s Strategic Choices in the Indo-Pacific Region
PDF link:第七章 俄烏戰爭與俄羅斯在印太的戰略抉擇.pdf
Vladimir Putin is caught in the quagmire of the Russo-Ukrainian war, however, Putin’s obsession with Ukraine and pursuit of historical status places him in a dilemma. Although the authoritarian states friendly with Russia are mostly on the sidelines, they have still fallen into the security dilemma of confronting the West with Russia, thus the group confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism has gradually formed.
Russia has no choice but to turn to the east, while its Indo-Pacific layout has changed due to the war. The alienation of Russo-Indian relations may make the past strategy of uniting with China to confront the United States and cooperating with India to control China unsustainable, and Russo-Chinese relations may also tilt toward China. Russia’s near abroad layout is also affected by the war, which not only challenges its status but also makes it difficult to alleviate the impact of sanctions. Cooperating with China to constrain the United States is a possible choice for Russia in the Indo-Pacific region, which may become more clearer after Xi Jinping is re-elected. In addition to cooperating with China’s gray zone tactics in the Indo-Pacific, Russia may also cooperate with China to harass Taiwan with aircraft and ships. Russia’s purpose is to constrain the United States, not to put itself in a “two-front” dilemma. However, Putin’s pursuit of historical status may still bring an unpredictable change.
Reconciliation with the West is far away, so Russia can only turn to the east. However, in the future, Russia may be constrained by China, which it can only rely on, and eventually be reduced to the predicament of being constrained by the East and the West.